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It seems like such a simple question: How hot is Earth going to get? Yet for 40 years, climate scientists have repeated the same unsatisfying answer: If humans double atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) from preindustrial levels, the planet will eventually warm between 1.5°C and 4.5°C—a temperature range that encompasses everything from a merely troubling rise to a catastrophic one.

Now that’s all been changed. A recent assessment, conducted by the World Climate Research Programme, was published last month in the journal Science. It focuses, and greatly narrows the projected scope, of climate sensitivity. The study’s analysis supports a likely warming range of between 2.6°C and 3.9°C.

Read about the Report and access the original here.